Investors holding from 1 to 10 BTC or more, known explicitly as Bitcoin shrimps and whales, have been amassing impressive amounts of the asset in their wallets as a consequence of the overall investor sentiment growing increasingly bullish. Hence, the late investment trends portrayed a favorable picture. An X post from Santiment, a market crypto intelligence provider, emphasized that investors may wait, while the whale level holding between 1K and 10K Bitcoins has amassed an extra 266K BTC, worth $17.2 billion, since the beginning of this year.
So high was the Bitcoin price prediction and hopes of a post-halving bull run that the hype is now paradoxically spawning massive potential to delay the upturn. Yet, the FOMO phenomenon is one of the most potent catalysts for price gains. What a turn of events, right? So, what factors prevent confident investors’ hopes from turning into reality this summer?
What don’t I know about FOMO?
If the title above has given you a fright, you may have experienced a case of FOMO, or fear of missing out. You can think of the feeling of anxiety and discomfort experienced as a result of a lack of knowledge or involvement in an overdid event that’s generating profits or gains for the quick-witted and updated investors.
As a psychological phenomenon, it’s spreading rapidly when backed by social media and news headlines, to name a few catalyzers. It’s a common human emotion, and in crypto, it prompts people to precipitately bankroll Bitcoin so as not to miss out on the opportunity of capitalizing during the bull run.
These days, AMBCrypto, a popular crypto news platform, found that the FOMO level reached new peaks in 2024. The Weighted Sentiment, a metric multiplied by the amount of social volume of positive and negative commentaries around, was also found to be jumping. The ballyhooed post-halving potential price gains, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and other factors triggered the rising FOMO among investors worldwide. Since there’s no cure for this malady, the climbing demand for Bitcoin can only spell good news—with a few time lags.
A case of the feeding frenzy of over-night gains
FOMO is anything but new in the crypto market. Bitcoin has seized investors’ attention and money since 2020 as its valuation soared from a modest $7K per coin to an unpreventable $60K in November of 2021. Fast forward, and as people were accommodating with the new guy in town, the restless digital gold suddenly crashed to a little over $16K leading up to the final of 2022. And nowadays, the context is barely different from that of the previous ones. Everyone wants their fair slice of pie.
The turning point indicating investors may wait
Recently, Bitcoin has breached new records with gains of almost 70% from January of this year, peaking at $73,679. Nevertheless, exchange listing prices have flattened out ever since, losing over $10K. Here, it’s necessary to point out that the drop was mainly triggered by the news that the Bank of Japan has raised the benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2007, dropping out of the yearslong promise to not push government bond yields over zero.
The flagship crypto started declining amid reports of a downturn in ETFs’ registered inflows following the Bank’s rate decision. Nevertheless, according to recent Bank statements, the economic risks remain moderate.
The intensifying FOMO phenomenon shows no signs of stopping soon
The expansion in Bitcoin possessions pertaining to 1k-10k BTC holders was significant but not as large as the spike registered during the year’s first month. A month ago, the metrics went on gradually climbing.
The wallets boasting less than a whole Bitcoin have also been reported to amass considerable amounts of Bitcoin as of late. Their supply share spiked, contrasting the somewhat unchanged activity in 10k-1 million BTC possessors in the past month.
Thus, it’s easy to see that FOMO is present and shows no signs of vanishing shortly, specifically when looking at the more insignificant tiers of Bitcoin owners. Hoarding activity has been climbing in anticipation of rising prices.
The halving that has come and gone has triggered bullish sentiments, yet history is putting stress on the importance of remaining precautious.
Drawing parallels between past and present runs
A rise in Bitcoin’s value would reflect higher amounts of the asset readily available for sale. For the past two years, the asset has trended mainly downward. The third halving mark of 2020 saw the exchange reserve metric climb exponentially, starting at the end of June and continuing until the end of July. This timeframe indicates that the six months after the halving event were the most important. Moving on to August, the flagship cryptocurrency witnessed a correction of about 20%.
If history were to repeat itself, then the reserve metric may witness a slight leap in the first days of June; henceforth, a comparable price adjustment would be awaited in July. Therefore, swing traders and investors are shifting their focus on the metrics these days and leading up to the summer’s end. Keeping tabs on these aspects ranks among the main things to do in anticipation of the discussed post-halving bull run and may prompt investors to wait.
Contrastingly, the BTC supply-rectified Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is, by default, resetting by March’s final. The indicator assesses the transitioned coins’ age, concentrating on the older ones. A sudden bounce in this metric suggests that long-held coins are hastily wasted. Shortly, it’s the long-term Bitcoin holders who are cashing out on their investments.
The CDD’s weekly moving average recently climbed significantly compared to its activity spanning the past four years. Immediately after, Bitcoin’s price hit a $59K low.
Ever since the asset rose by 11.5% until it achieved the $66.4k level. Together with the growing accumulation, the likelihood of the bull run commencing curtly was considerable.
Endnote
As Bitcoin has accustomed traders during previous post-halving bull runs, price gains are not registered immediately after the event. The patient long-term holders are usually the best-rewarded participants in the crypto space, so investors may wait until the end of the summer. Ensure you’re keeping your FOMO under control and minimized.
